31 pitchers get two starts in the week of August 10, 2026. Which ones are actually worth it.
31 pitchers are lined up for two starts in the week of August 10, 2026. Two starts is the single biggest weekly lever in lineup leagues, but it is not automatically good, a second start against a top offense can cost more in ratios than it returns in counting stats. These are ordered by projected points for the two starts combined, and the number in brackets after each opponent is that offense's runs-scored rank, where 1 is the hardest matchup in baseball.
| Pitcher | Tm | Opponents | Proj pts | K | QS | SIERA | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | TOR | BOS (14) · NYY (13) | 34 | 19 | 1.1 | 2.89 | 1 projected |
| Sean Burke | CWS | CIN (25) · DET (11) | 32 | 17 | 1.1 | 3.45 | 1 projected |
| Tarik Skubal | LAD | KC (24) · MIL (5) | 30 | 15 | 1.1 | 2.74 | 1 projected |
| Drew Anderson | DET | CLE (28) · CWS (8) | 29 | 16 | 0.8 | 3.28 | 1 projected |
| Hunter Dobbins | STL | PHI (17) · CHC (2) | 26 | 12 | 1.1 | 4.04 | 1 projected |
| Reid Detmers | LAA | TEX (23) · KC (24) | 26 | 14 | 1.1 | 3.42 | 1 projected |
| Cody Bradford | TEX | LAA (27) · ATH (20) | 26 | 11 | 0.6 | 4.33 | 2 projected |
| Ryan Weathers | NYY | SEA (30) · TOR (29) | 25 | 12 | 1.1 | 3.41 | 1 projected |
| Braxton Ashcraft | PIT | MIA (18) · MIA (18) | 25 | 13 | 1.1 | 3.33 | 1 projected |
| Eury Perez | MIA | PIT (3) · CIN (25) | 25 | 14 | 0.6 | 3.77 | 1 projected |
| Sonny Gray | BOS | TOR (29) · PIT (3) | 25 | 11 | 1.1 | 3.83 | 1 projected |
| Shota Imanaga | CHC | WSH (1) · STL (19) | 24 | 11 | 1.1 | 3.75 | 1 projected |
| Kyle Harrison | MIL | SD (21) · LAD (4) | 24 | 13 | 0.6 | 2.92 | 1 projected |
| Bryan Woo | SEA | NYY (13) · HOU (10) | 24 | 12 | 1.1 | 3.60 | 1 projected |
| Bryce Elder | ATL | NYM (22) · AZ (12) | 23 | 9 | 1.1 | 4.38 | 1 projected |
| MacKenzie Gore | TEX | LAA (27) · ATH (20) | 23 | 12 | 0.6 | 3.81 | 1 projected |
| Gabriel Hughes | COL | ARI (12) · SF (26) | 23 | 11 | 1.1 | 3.85 | 1 projected |
| Tanner Bibee | CLE | DET (11) · SD (21) | 22 | 10 | 1.1 | 4.31 | 1 projected |
| Noah Cameron | KC | LAD (4) · LAA (27) | 22 | 11 | 0.8 | 4.08 | 1 projected |
Playable in most formats, closer calls in shallow ones.
| Pitcher | Tm | Opponents | Proj pts | K | QS | SIERA | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | SD | MIL (5) · CLE (28) | 22 | 11 | 0.6 | 3.86 | 1 projected |
| Christian Scott | NYM | ATL (6) · WSH (1) | 21 | 11 | 0.6 | 3.66 | 1 projected |
| Freddy Peralta | TB | ATH (20) · BAL (15) | 20 | 10 | 0.6 | 4.29 | 1 projected |
| Blade Tidwell | SF | HOU (10) · COL (7) | 19 | 8 | 0.6 | 4.03 | 1 projected |
| Trevor Rogers | BAL | MIN (9) · TB (16) | 19 | 9 | 0.6 | 4.21 | 1 projected |
| Dean Kremer | MIN | BAL (15) · PHI (17) | 19 | 11 | 0.6 | 4.01 | 1 projected |
| Hayden Wesneski | HOU | SF (26) · SEA (30) | 18 | 7 | 0.6 | 4.70 | 1 projected |
| Jake Irvin | WSH | CHC (2) · NYM (22) | 18 | 10 | 0.6 | 4.26 | 2 projected |
| Jameson Taillon | TOR | BOS (14) · NYY (13) | 17 | 9 | 0.6 | 4.50 | 1 projected |
| Jacob Lopez | ATH | TB (16) · TEX (23) | 16 | 8 | 0.6 | 5.06 | 1 projected |
| Andrew Painter | PHI | STL (19) · MIN (9) | 16 | 8 | 0.6 | 4.55 | 1 projected |
The volume is real but the projection is not, in a league where ratios matter these are streamers at best.
| Pitcher | Tm | Opponents | Proj pts | K | QS | SIERA | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Johnson | LAA | TEX (23) · KC (24) | 14 | 7 | 0.6 | 5.28 | 1 projected |
Cease is the play, and the matchups are the reason to trust it rather than doubt it. Boston at 14th in runs and the Yankees at 13th are the toughest pair anyone near the top of this list draws, and he still projects for 34 points and 19 strikeouts. That is the highest strikeout total on the board by three, against offenses nobody would call soft. A 2.89 SIERA is doing the work there: the projection is not leaning on weak lineups to get him home, it is leaning on him missing bats regardless of who is standing in. Start him and don't think about it.
Skubal is the more interesting version of the same argument. Kansas City at 24th is a gift, Milwaukee at 5th is not, and the two average out to 30 points and 15 strikeouts on a 2.74 SIERA, the best mark in the field. The reason he lands under Cease despite the better ratio is simply the second matchup. If you are in a points league where a blowup start costs you real ground, the Milwaukee side of this is a live risk, and Skubal being the best pitcher here does not make the Brewers game safe. You start him anyway. But be honest about which half you are buying.
The trap is Cody Bradford. Everything about the line is designed to look appetizing: the Angels at 27th and the Athletics at 20th are the two easiest opponents any pitcher on this board draws back to back, and the 26 points ties him with arms who have real strikeout profiles. Look at how he gets there. Eleven strikeouts across two starts is the lowest total in the field, 0.6 quality starts says the projection does not expect him to finish six innings in either game, and a 4.33 SIERA is second worst here. He is a matchup mirage. The points are being manufactured almost entirely by the schedule, and schedule-driven points evaporate the moment one of those lineups strings together three singles in the fourth.
There is a second problem with Bradford that nobody else on this list has: both of his starts are projected rather than lined up. Every other arm here has one confirmed and one penciled in. He has two penciled in. So the volume case, which is the only case, rests on a rotation order that has not actually happened yet. The strongest argument against me is that Texas has no reason to skip him and the opponents really are that bad, in which case a mediocre arm throwing ten innings against the Angels and the A's clears 26 points comfortably. Fine. That is the bet you are making, and it is a bet on innings, not on pitching. The falsifier is simple and it arrives fast: if Texas announces a rotation that pushes him out of the second turn, or if he goes fewer than five in the Angels start, the whole projection is gone and you have burned a two-start slot on eleven strikeouts. Note that MacKenzie Gore draws the identical Texas slate for 23 points with a 3.81 SIERA. I would rather have the better arm on the same schedule.
The rest of the board is what it looks like. Weathers gets Seattle at 30th and Toronto at 29th, the softest pair going, and still only projects 25. Dobbins carries a 4.04 SIERA into the Cubs at 2nd. If you need points in a shallow week, take Cease and hold your nose on Skubal's Milwaukee day. If you are streaming for ratios, Bradford is the name to leave on the wire.
Proj pts is the engine's expected fantasy points for both starts together, K and QS the expected strikeouts and quality starts across them. SIERA is the season-to-date rate, included because it travels better than ERA when the sample is one summer.
The Starts column matters most. Where a start is projected rather than confirmed, the rotation has not been announced and it can disappear: a rainout, a skipped turn, an injury. This piece refreshes as starts are confirmed, so the later in the week you read it, the more of it is settled.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
-
-
-
Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
Walk-forward over historical seasons. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, top-N hit rates.
Distribution, uncertainty, per-archetype performance, calibrated tiers, draft sim.
Load any rival projection or ADP source. Auto-detects player_name + rank / adp / projected.
Where the model finds value the market is missing.
Curated picks from current rankings.
Where the model has measurable advantage.
The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
Live pipeline status and data freshness.
-
Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
-
MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
|---|
Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
|---|
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
|---|
Every signal, formula, and data source the model uses for player evaluation - organized by product.
Configure your draft session. This stays on this device only.