Freddy Peralta is a Tampa Bay Rays SP projected for 287 fantasy points on 177.4 IP, 164 K, 4.4 ERA, 1.321 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 36% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Freddy Peralta's 2026 projection is built on 177 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 9 seasons with meaningful innings, Peralta's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 27: 210 strikeouts over 166 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 174, 177 and 169.
In 2026, Peralta's 4.42 ERA ran above a 3.84 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Peralta struck out 21.4% of batters and walked 8.6%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12.8 points, and hitters missed on 26.1% of their swings. Contact against Peralta averaged 87.6 mph off the bat, with a 5.8% barrel rate.
Peralta's projected range runs from a 271-point floor to a 460-point upside, around a 287-point median: a spread of 189 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Peralta on the board are MacKenzie Gore, Bryan Woo and Kevin Gausman.
At 30, Peralta is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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