Casey Mize is a San Diego Padres SP projected for 209 fantasy points on 131.5 IP, 110 K, 4.3 ERA, 1.226 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 19%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Casey Mize's 2026 projection is built on 131 innings as a starter.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Mize's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 28: 139 strikeouts over 149 innings, with 14 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 102, 149 and 131.
In 2026, Mize's 4.32 ERA ran above a 3.87 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Mize struck out 20.0% of batters and walked 6.9%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 13.1 points, and hitters missed on 23.2% of their swings. Contact against Mize averaged 89.2 mph off the bat, with an 8.3% barrel rate.
Mize's projected range runs from a 209-point floor to a 414-point upside, around a 209-point median: a spread of 205 points, or 98% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Mize on the board are Ryan Yarbrough, Braxton Ashcraft and Jovani Morán.
At 29, Mize is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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