Trevor Rogers is a Baltimore Orioles SP projected for 325 fantasy points on 177 IP, 164 K, 4 ERA, 1.186 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 30% and a bust at 15%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Trevor Rogers's 2026 projection is built on 177 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 6 seasons with meaningful innings, Rogers's biggest strikeout year came in 2021 at age 23: 157 strikeouts over 133 innings, with 7 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 124, 110 and 170, a rising workload.
In 2026, Rogers's 4.03 ERA ran above a 3.60 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Rogers struck out 22.5% of batters and walked 5.6%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 16.9 points, and hitters missed on 24.4% of their swings. Contact against Rogers averaged 88.1 mph off the bat, with a 6.8% barrel rate.
Rogers's projected range runs from a 311-point floor to a 519-point upside, around a 325-point median: a spread of 208 points, or 64% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Rogers on the board are Drew Rasmussen, Shota Imanaga and Parker Messick.
At 28, Rogers is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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