Tarik Skubal is a Los Angeles Dodgers SP projected for 443 fantasy points on 167.3 IP, 196 K, 2.8 ERA, 0.972 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 56% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Tarik Skubal's 2026 projection is built on 167 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 7 seasons with meaningful innings, Skubal's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 28: 241 strikeouts over 195 innings, with 13 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 192, 195 and 159.
In 2026, Skubal's 2.72 ERA sat close to a 2.94 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Skubal struck out 30.0% of batters and walked 4.4%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 25.6 points, and hitters missed on 31.7% of their swings. Contact against Skubal averaged 87.1 mph off the bat, with a 6.7% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Skubal's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 345 pitches, the whiff rate sits 3 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 5 points above Skubal's own baseline. The engine applies a +4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Skubal's projected range runs from a 423-point floor to a 709-point upside, around a 443-point median: a spread of 286 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Skubal on the board are Zack Wheeler, Logan Gilbert and Chris Sale.
At 29, Skubal is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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