MacKenzie Gore is a Texas Rangers SP projected for 296 fantasy points on 181.9 IP, 183 K, 4.6 ERA, 1.335 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 15% and a bust at 9%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
MacKenzie Gore's 2026 projection is built on 182 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Gore's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 26: 185 strikeouts over 160 innings, with 5 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 166, 160 and 173.
In 2026, Gore's 4.58 ERA ran above a 4.18 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Gore struck out 23.2% of batters and walked 9.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 13.7 points, and hitters missed on 24.9% of their swings. Contact against Gore averaged 89.2 mph off the bat, with an 8.7% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Gore's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 247 pitches, the whiff rate sits 19 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 9 points below Gore's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Gore's projected range runs from a 280-point floor to a 473-point upside, around a 296-point median: a spread of 193 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Gore on the board are Freddy Peralta, Kevin Gausman and Ranger Suarez.
At 27, Gore is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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