Jacob Lopez is a Athletics SP projected for 161 fantasy points on 129.2 IP, 118 K, 5.4 ERA, 1.495 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 15%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Jacob Lopez's 2026 projection is built on 129 innings as a starter.
Across 2 seasons with meaningful innings, Lopez's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 27: 113 strikeouts over 93 innings, with 7 wins. Innings across 2025 and 2026 ran 93 and 123, a rising workload.
In 2026, Lopez's 5.47 ERA ran above a 3.65 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Lopez struck out 20.3% of batters and walked 10.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 9.8 points, and hitters missed on 24.1% of their swings. Contact against Lopez averaged 84.6 mph off the bat, with a 6.9% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Lopez's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 352 pitches, the whiff rate sits 17 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 8 points below Lopez's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Lopez's projected range runs from a 152-point floor to a 319-point upside, around a 161-point median: a spread of 167 points, or 104% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Lopez on the board are Jared Jones, Emmet Sheehan and Peter Lambert.
At 28, Lopez is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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