Sonny Gray is a Boston Red Sox SP projected for 401 fantasy points on 176.7 IP, 156 K, 2.7 ERA, 1.148 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 16% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Sonny Gray's 2026 projection is built on 177 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 12 seasons with meaningful innings, Gray's biggest strikeout year came in 2019 at age 29: 205 strikeouts over 175 innings, with 11 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 166, 181 and 169.
In 2026, Gray's 2.72 ERA came in below a 3.87 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Gray struck out 21.8% of batters and walked 6.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 15.1 points, and hitters missed on 23.1% of their swings. Contact against Gray averaged 89.2 mph off the bat, with a 6.9% barrel rate.
Gray's projected range runs from a 386-point floor to a 642-point upside, around a 401-point median: a spread of 256 points, or 64% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Gray on the board are Nolan McLean, George Kirby and Foster Griffin.
At 36, Gray is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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