Shota Imanaga is a Chicago Cubs SP projected for 380 fantasy points on 184.6 IP, 183 K, 3.8 ERA, 1.106 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 3% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Shota Imanaga's 2026 projection is built on 185 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 3 seasons with meaningful innings, Imanaga's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 30: 174 strikeouts over 173 innings, with 15 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 173, 145 and 174.
In 2026, Imanaga's 3.77 ERA sat close to a 3.81 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Imanaga struck out 24.6% of batters and walked 5.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 19.4 points, and hitters missed on 30.0% of their swings. Contact against Imanaga averaged 88.4 mph off the bat, with a 9.8% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Imanaga's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 385 pitches, the whiff rate sits 5 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 2 points above Imanaga's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Imanaga's projected range runs from a 362-point floor to a 608-point upside, around a 380-point median: a spread of 246 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Imanaga on the board are George Kirby, Noah Cameron and Joey Cantillo.
At 32, Imanaga is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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