Form by the rates: 16 heating up, 16 cooling off across hitters and pitchers.
Form, measured as a rate rather than a total. Comparing the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026 against the whole of August 1 to August 31, 2026, per plate appearance for hitters and per inning for pitchers, because a player who simply started more games last week has not changed, he has just played.
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per plate appearance, a bar of +0.48 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | NYM | 1.78 | 0.38 | +1.40 | 9 | #375 |
| Carter Jensen | KCR | 1.52 | 0.41 | +1.12 | 21 | #137 |
| Henry Davis | PIT | 1.10 | 0.07 | +1.03 | 10 | #428 |
| Brayan Rocchio | CLE | 1.14 | 0.26 | +0.89 | 21 | #169 |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | 1.40 | 0.55 | +0.85 | 25 | #34 |
| T.J. Rumfield | COL | 1.31 | 0.47 | +0.84 | 26 | #59 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | 0.77 | -0.05 | +0.81 | 30 | #351 |
| Eli White | BOS | 1.16 | 0.36 | +0.79 | 19 | #651 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -0.49 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmundo Sosa | PHI | -0.08 | 1.38 | -1.46 | 12 | #539 |
| Luis Torrens | NYM | -0.12 | 1.14 | -1.26 | 8 | #396 |
| Brett Callahan | DET | -0.46 | 0.44 | -0.90 | 13 | unranked |
| Leody Taveras | BAL | -0.38 | 0.48 | -0.86 | 16 | #374 |
| Freddy Fermin | SDP | -0.40 | 0.40 | -0.80 | 5 | #507 |
| Darell Hernaiz | ATH | -0.60 | 0.19 | -0.79 | 5 | #828 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | -0.20 | 0.56 | -0.76 | 25 | #68 |
| Pedro Ramirez | CHC | -0.19 | 0.57 | -0.76 | 16 | #324 |
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per inning, a bar of +1.88 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | PIT | 4.17 | 0.18 | +3.99 | 6 | #267 |
| Connor Prielipp | MIN | 3.60 | 0.56 | +3.04 | 5 | #713 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | 3.80 | 0.79 | +3.01 | 5 | #874 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 3.67 | 0.86 | +2.81 | 6 | #31 |
| Freddy Peralta | TBR | 3.67 | 1.27 | +2.40 | 6 | #325 |
| Sean Burke | CHW | 3.58 | 1.26 | +2.31 | 5 | #91 |
| Robert Stock | NYM | 3.00 | 0.77 | +2.23 | 5 | #1373 |
| Ranger Suarez | BOS | 2.86 | 0.72 | +2.14 | 7 | #193 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -1.66 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison | MIL | -3.48 | 1.48 | -4.96 | 7 | #149 |
| Sean Manaea | NYM | -1.23 | 1.74 | -2.97 | 5 | #306 |
| MacKenzie Gore | TEX | 0.04 | 2.08 | -2.05 | 8 | #232 |
| Bryce Elder | ATL | -0.92 | 1.08 | -2.00 | 5 | #337 |
| Anthony Kay | CHW | -0.44 | 1.48 | -1.93 | 9 | #362 |
| Troy Melton | DET | 0.06 | 1.93 | -1.87 | 5 | #51 |
| Joey Cantillo | CLE | 0.06 | 1.83 | -1.77 | 5 | #234 |
| Ryan Gusto | MIA | 0.44 | 2.18 | -1.74 | 9 | #766 |
Everything here is a rate. Points per plate appearance and points per inning remove the schedule from the comparison, which matters more than it sounds: the single most common reason a player "broke out" last week is that he started six games instead of three.
The two windows overlap, the week sits inside the month, so every player is partly being compared against himself. That pulls each number toward zero, which means real form changes are understated here and none of them are manufactured by the method.
The cutoffs are the tenth and ninetieth percentiles of the group being shown, recomputed every time this runs. A pitcher and a hitter are never held to the same bar, because their spreads are not the same shape.
A player needs 5 plate appearances or innings in the week and 20 in the month to appear. A rate built on two at-bats is not form, it is arithmetic.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
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| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
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Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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