Sean Manaea is a New York Mets SP+RP projected for 250 fantasy points on 158.1 IP, 153 K, 4.8 ERA, 1.300 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 15%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Sean Manaea's 2026 projection is built on 158 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 11 seasons with meaningful innings, Manaea's biggest strikeout year came in 2021 at age 29: 194 strikeouts over 179 innings, with 11 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 182, 61 and 151.
In 2026, Manaea's 4.78 ERA sat close to a 4.76 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Manaea struck out 22.1% of batters and walked 6.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 15.4 points, and hitters missed on 22.2% of their swings. Contact against Manaea averaged 89.5 mph off the bat, with an 11.0% barrel rate.
Manaea's projected range runs from a 236-point floor to a 400-point upside, around a 250-point median: a spread of 164 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Manaea on the board are Matthew Liberatore, Michael Soroka and Roki Sasaki.
At 34, Manaea is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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