Ranger Suarez is a Boston Red Sox SP projected for 322 fantasy points on 155.5 IP, 147 K, 3.2 ERA, 1.192 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 29% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Ranger Suarez's 2026 projection is built on 156 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 7 seasons with meaningful innings, Suarez's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 29: 151 strikeouts over 157 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 151, 157 and 148.
In 2026, Suarez's 3.22 ERA came in below a 3.63 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Suarez struck out 22.9% of batters and walked 7.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 15.4 points, and hitters missed on 21.7% of their swings. Contact against Suarez averaged 86.8 mph off the bat, with a 5.3% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Suarez's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 371 pitches, the whiff rate sits 1 point below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 2 points above Suarez's own baseline. The engine applies a +4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Suarez's projected range runs from a 309-point floor to a 515-point upside, around a 322-point median: a spread of 206 points, or 64% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Suarez on the board are Joey Cantillo, Shota Imanaga and George Kirby.
At 30, Suarez is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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