Ryan Gusto is a Miami Marlins SP projected for 130 fantasy points on 92.3 IP, 78 K, 4.1 ERA, 1.439 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 10%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Ryan Gusto's 2026 projection is built on 92 innings as a starter.
Across 2 seasons with meaningful innings, Gusto's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 26: 97 strikeouts over 102 innings, with 7 wins. Innings across 2025 and 2026 ran 102 and 88.
In 2026, Gusto's 4.09 ERA came in below a 5.02 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Gusto struck out 18.9% of batters and walked 7.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.8 points, and hitters missed on 20.7% of their swings. Contact against Gusto averaged 89.5 mph off the bat, with an 8.8% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Gusto's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 359 pitches, the whiff rate sits 4 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points below Gusto's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Gusto's projected range runs from a 123-point floor to a 257-point upside, around a 130-point median: a spread of 134 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Gusto on the board are Aaron Civale, Tyler Phillips and Chris Bassitt.
At 27, Gusto is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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