Form by the rates: 16 heating up, 16 cooling off across hitters and pitchers.
Form, measured as a rate rather than a total. Comparing the week of August 17 to August 23, 2026 against the whole of July 1 to July 31, 2026, per plate appearance for hitters and per inning for pitchers, because a player who simply started more games last week has not changed, he has just played.
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per plate appearance, a bar of +0.47 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmundo Sosa | PHI | 1.62 | 0.09 | +1.53 | 8 | #532 |
| Randal Grichuk | CHW | 1.55 | 0.27 | +1.28 | 11 | #456 |
| Zach Neto | LAA | 1.36 | 0.33 | +1.03 | 28 | #147 |
| David Hamilton | MIL | 1.42 | 0.41 | +1.00 | 12 | #345 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | NYM | 1.14 | 0.19 | +0.95 | 21 | #674 |
| Derek Hill | PHI | 1.40 | 0.50 | +0.90 | 5 | #695 |
| Josh Smith | TOR | 1.22 | 0.32 | +0.90 | 9 | #566 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | 1.56 | 0.69 | +0.87 | 27 | #27 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -0.59 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Valencia | DET | -0.25 | 1.28 | -1.53 | 12 | #453 |
| Jeremiah Jackson | BAL | -0.80 | 0.55 | -1.35 | 5 | #530 |
| James McCann | ARI | 0.20 | 1.28 | -1.08 | 10 | #462 |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | -0.31 | 0.65 | -0.96 | 13 | #262 |
| Miguel Amaya | CHC | -0.38 | 0.56 | -0.94 | 8 | #449 |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | -0.07 | 0.85 | -0.92 | 14 | #284 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | 0.00 | 0.91 | -0.91 | 14 | #79 |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | -0.06 | 0.80 | -0.85 | 17 | #616 |
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per inning, a bar of +1.86 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Johnson | LAA | 3.29 | 0.22 | +3.07 | 7 | #1003 |
| Walker Buehler | SDP | 2.50 | -0.09 | +2.59 | 12 | #378 |
| Shane Bieber | TOR | 3.43 | 0.96 | +2.46 | 7 | #559 |
| Zebby Matthews | MIN | 2.62 | 0.23 | +2.38 | 5 | #608 |
| MacKenzie Gore | TEX | 3.67 | 1.30 | +2.37 | 6 | #176 |
| Cal Quantrill | TEX | 3.38 | 1.10 | +2.29 | 13 | #363 |
| Cade Cavalli | WSN | 4.50 | 2.43 | +2.07 | 6 | #110 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.43 | 1.45 | +1.98 | 7 | #334 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -1.69 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | ARI | -2.63 | 1.37 | -4.01 | 7 | #464 |
| Troy Melton | DET | 0.69 | 3.10 | -2.41 | 5 | #12 |
| Bryce Miller | SEA | -1.00 | 1.40 | -2.40 | 9 | #203 |
| Sean Burke | CHW | 1.17 | 3.48 | -2.31 | 6 | #53 |
| Landen Roupp | SFG | 0.06 | 2.26 | -2.20 | 5 | #317 |
| Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 0.33 | 2.34 | -2.01 | 6 | #120 |
| Luis Castillo | CHW | -1.23 | 0.57 | -1.79 | 7 | #510 |
| Matthew Boyd | CHC | 0.83 | 2.53 | -1.70 | 6 | #211 |
Everything here is a rate. Points per plate appearance and points per inning remove the schedule from the comparison, which matters more than it sounds: the single most common reason a player "broke out" last week is that he started six games instead of three.
The two windows overlap, the week sits inside the month, so every player is partly being compared against himself. That pulls each number toward zero, which means real form changes are understated here and none of them are manufactured by the method.
The cutoffs are the tenth and ninetieth percentiles of the group being shown, recomputed every time this runs. A pitcher and a hitter are never held to the same bar, because their spreads are not the same shape.
A player needs 5 plate appearances or innings in the week and 20 in the month to appear. A rate built on two at-bats is not form, it is arithmetic.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
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Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
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Curated picks from current rankings.
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The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
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| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
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Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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