Aaron Nola is a Philadelphia Phillies SP projected for 291 fantasy points on 184 IP, 186 K, 4.6 ERA, 1.345 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Aaron Nola's 2026 projection is built on 184 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 12 seasons with meaningful innings, Nola's biggest strikeout year came in 2022 at age 29: 235 strikeouts over 205 innings, with 11 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 199, 94 and 175.
In 2026, Nola's 4.67 ERA ran above a 4.18 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Nola struck out 23.8% of batters and walked 7.9%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 15.9 points, and hitters missed on 27.1% of their swings. Contact against Nola averaged 88.5 mph off the bat, with a 9.3% barrel rate.
Nola's projected range runs from a 275-point floor to a 466-point upside, around a 291-point median: a spread of 191 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Nola on the board are Eury Pérez, Kevin Gausman and Michael Soroka.
At 33, Nola is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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