Walker Buehler is a San Diego Padres SP projected for 246 fantasy points on 160.7 IP, 137 K, 4.6 ERA, 1.340 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 10% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Walker Buehler's 2026 projection is built on 161 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Buehler's biggest strikeout year came in 2019 at age 24: 215 strikeouts over 182 innings, with 14 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 75, 126 and 154, a rising workload.
In 2026, Buehler's 4.63 ERA ran above a 4.27 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Buehler struck out 20.1% of batters and walked 8.8%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.3 points, and hitters missed on 19.5% of their swings. Contact against Buehler averaged 89.3 mph off the bat, with an 8.4% barrel rate.
Buehler's projected range runs from a 233-point floor to a 393-point upside, around a 246-point median: a spread of 160 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Buehler on the board are Michael King, Robbie Ray and José Soriano.
At 31, Buehler is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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