Zack Littell is a SP+RP projected for 135 fantasy points on 129.5 IP, 77 K, 5.2 ERA, 1.402 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Zack Littell's 2026 projection is built on 129 innings as a starter.
Across 8 seasons with meaningful innings, Littell's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 28: 141 strikeouts over 156 innings, with 8 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 156, 187 and 124.
In 2026, Littell's 5.21 ERA came in below a 6.64 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Littell struck out 13.5% of batters and walked 7.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 6.3 points, and hitters missed on 16.2% of their swings. Contact against Littell averaged 91.7 mph off the bat, with an 11.3% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Littell's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 287 pitches, the whiff rate sits 6 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 8 points below Littell's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Littell's projected range runs from a 127-point floor to a 267-point upside, around a 135-point median: a spread of 140 points, or 104% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Littell on the board are Erick Fedde, Clay Holmes and Nick Lodolo.
At 30, Littell is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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