Form by the rates: 15 heating up, 15 cooling off across hitters and pitchers.
Form, measured as a rate rather than a total. Comparing the week of September 21 to September 27, 2026 against the whole of August 1 to August 31, 2026, per plate appearance for hitters and per inning for pitchers, because a player who simply started more games last week has not changed, he has just played.
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per plate appearance, a bar of +0.55 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Valenzuela | TOR | 1.43 | 0.12 | +1.31 | 7 | #473 |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | 1.55 | 0.37 | +1.17 | 11 | #201 |
| Brenton Doyle | CHW | 1.38 | 0.32 | +1.07 | 13 | #553 |
| Alex Bregman | CHC | 2.00 | 0.96 | +1.04 | 9 | #16 |
| Freddy Fermin | SDP | 1.40 | 0.40 | +1.00 | 5 | #498 |
| Ben Malgeri | DET | 1.25 | 0.33 | +0.92 | 16 | #622 |
| Chase Meidroth | CHW | 1.43 | 0.52 | +0.91 | 14 | #151 |
| Joe Mack | MIA | 1.20 | 0.32 | +0.88 | 10 | #266 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -0.55 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Torrens | NYM | 0.00 | 1.14 | -1.14 | 11 | #376 |
| Mickey Gasper | BOS | 0.38 | 1.45 | -1.08 | 8 | #430 |
| Jase Bowen | SDP | -0.67 | 0.33 | -1.00 | 6 | #1077 |
| Carson Kelly | CHC | -0.25 | 0.72 | -0.97 | 12 | #216 |
| Brett Sullivan | COL | -0.14 | 0.77 | -0.91 | 7 | #456 |
| Jahmai Jones | BOS | -0.08 | 0.80 | -0.88 | 13 | #886 |
| Jorge Mateo | TBR | -0.07 | 0.73 | -0.80 | 14 | #693 |
| Daylen Lile | WSN | 0.00 | 0.76 | -0.76 | 21 | #84 |
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per inning, a bar of +1.97 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | PIT | 4.27 | 0.18 | +4.09 | 11 | #112 |
| Robert Gasser | MIL | 3.83 | 1.48 | +2.35 | 6 | #681 |
| Sean Burke | CHW | 3.39 | 1.26 | +2.13 | 5 | #74 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 2.91 | 0.86 | +2.05 | 11 | #12 |
| Kumar Rocker | TEX | 2.80 | 0.78 | +2.02 | 5 | #391 |
| Andrew Abbott | CIN | 2.29 | 0.27 | +2.02 | 7 | #416 |
| Eury Perez | MIA | 4.10 | 2.12 | +1.98 | 10 | #146 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -1.97 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -2.00 | 2.24 | -4.24 | 7 | #754 |
| Noah Cameron | KCR | -1.00 | 2.73 | -3.73 | 5 | #221 |
| Tyler Mahle | ATL | 0.20 | 2.64 | -2.44 | 5 | #232 |
| Bailey Ober | MIN | -1.00 | 1.35 | -2.35 | 5 | #328 |
| Ryan Johnson | LAA | -0.20 | 2.04 | -2.24 | 5 | #799 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.29 | 2.50 | -2.21 | 7 | #271 |
| Max Fried | NYY | 0.74 | 2.75 | -2.01 | 6 | #61 |
Everything here is a rate. Points per plate appearance and points per inning remove the schedule from the comparison, which matters more than it sounds: the single most common reason a player "broke out" last week is that he started six games instead of three.
The two windows overlap, the week sits inside the month, so every player is partly being compared against himself. That pulls each number toward zero, which means real form changes are understated here and none of them are manufactured by the method.
The cutoffs are the tenth and ninetieth percentiles of the group being shown, recomputed every time this runs. A pitcher and a hitter are never held to the same bar, because their spreads are not the same shape.
A player needs 5 plate appearances or innings in the week and 20 in the month to appear. A rate built on two at-bats is not form, it is arithmetic.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
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The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
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A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
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| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
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Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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