Bailey Ober is a Minnesota Twins SP projected for 204 fantasy points on 137.6 IP, 102 K, 4.5 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 1 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Bailey Ober's 2026 projection is built on 138 innings as a starter.
Across 6 seasons with meaningful innings, Ober's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 28: 191 strikeouts over 179 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 179, 146 and 131.
In 2026, Ober's 4.47 ERA sat close to a 4.66 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Ober struck out 17.1% of batters and walked 6.6%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 10.5 points, and hitters missed on 20.3% of their swings. Contact against Ober averaged 89.0 mph off the bat, with a 9.9% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Ober's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 302 pitches, the whiff rate sits 6 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 5 points above Ober's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Ober's projected range runs from a 194-point floor to a 404-point upside, around a 204-point median: a spread of 210 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Ober on the board are Rhett Lowder, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Irvin.
At 30, Ober is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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