Max Fried is a New York Yankees SP projected for 274 fantasy points on 118.9 IP, 110 K, 2.8 ERA, 1.000 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 28% and a bust at 16%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Max Fried's 2026 projection is built on 119 innings as a starter.
Across 10 seasons with meaningful innings, Fried's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 31: 189 strikeouts over 195 innings, with 19 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 174, 195 and 113, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
In 2026, Fried's 2.80 ERA sat close to a 2.51 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Fried struck out 24.0% of batters and walked 7.6%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 16.4 points, and hitters missed on 25.0% of their swings. Contact against Fried averaged 85.9 mph off the bat, with a 2.4% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Fried's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 337 pitches, the whiff rate sits 2 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points above Fried's own baseline. The engine applies a +4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Fried's projected range runs from a 260-point floor to a 439-point upside, around a 274-point median: a spread of 179 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Fried on the board are Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom and Logan Henderson.
At 32, Fried is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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