Kyle Freeland is a Colorado Rockies SP projected for 98 fantasy points on 139.3 IP, 111 K, 6.6 ERA, 1.516 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 1% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Kyle Freeland's 2026 projection is built on 139 innings as a starter.
Across 10 seasons with meaningful innings, Freeland's biggest strikeout year came in 2018 at age 25: 173 strikeouts over 202 innings, with 17 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 113, 163 and 135.
In 2026, Freeland's 6.65 ERA ran above a 5.58 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Freeland struck out 17.6% of batters and walked 4.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12.9 points, and hitters missed on 22.2% of their swings. Contact against Freeland averaged 90.7 mph off the bat, with an 11.1% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Freeland's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 247 pitches, the whiff rate sits 4 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 6 points below Freeland's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Freeland's projected range runs from a 92-point floor to a 157-point upside, around a 98-point median: a spread of 65 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Freeland on the board are Grayson Rodriguez, Bryce Miller and Slade Cecconi.
At 33, Freeland is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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