Form by the rates: 16 heating up, 16 cooling off across hitters and pitchers.
Form, measured as a rate rather than a total. Comparing the week of September 7 to September 13, 2026 against the whole of August 1 to August 31, 2026, per plate appearance for hitters and per inning for pitchers, because a player who simply started more games last week has not changed, he has just played.
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per plate appearance, a bar of +0.62 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang | MIL | 1.54 | 0.25 | +1.29 | 26 | #59 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | TBR | 1.86 | 0.57 | +1.29 | 22 | #476 |
| Nick Fortes | TBR | 1.29 | 0.16 | +1.13 | 7 | #342 |
| Heliot Ramos | NYY | 1.17 | 0.13 | +1.03 | 6 | #312 |
| Nick Allen | HOU | 1.50 | 0.47 | +1.03 | 6 | #658 |
| Christian Koss | SFG | 1.10 | 0.09 | +1.01 | 20 | #773 |
| Luis Torrens | NYM | 2.11 | 1.14 | +0.97 | 9 | #367 |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | 1.26 | 0.30 | +0.96 | 23 | #273 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -0.51 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/PA | Month pts/PA | Change | Week PA | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmai Jones | BOS | -0.56 | 0.80 | -1.36 | 9 | #854 |
| Brett Sullivan | COL | -0.29 | 0.77 | -1.05 | 7 | #431 |
| Mickey Gasper | BOS | 0.47 | 1.45 | -0.99 | 15 | #403 |
| Christian Vazquez | HOU | -0.60 | 0.34 | -0.94 | 5 | #500 |
| Andruw Monasterio | BOS | -0.40 | 0.49 | -0.89 | 5 | #428 |
| Mickey Moniak | COL | -0.57 | 0.31 | -0.88 | 14 | #204 |
| Tyrone Taylor | CHC | 0.00 | 0.87 | -0.87 | 9 | #372 |
| Edgar Quero | CHW | 0.00 | 0.85 | -0.85 | 6 | #586 |
Heating up. The top tenth of the group by change in points per inning, a bar of +1.82 set by this run's own spread rather than by a fixed number.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | PIT | 4.00 | 0.18 | +3.82 | 7 | #202 |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | 4.83 | 1.74 | +3.09 | 6 | #107 |
| Ranger Suarez | BOS | 3.43 | 0.72 | +2.71 | 7 | #164 |
| Jackson Jobe | DET | 3.66 | 1.23 | +2.43 | 6 | #670 |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 3.00 | 0.86 | +2.14 | 7 | #15 |
| Cristian Javier | HOU | 2.83 | 0.79 | +2.04 | 6 | #723 |
| Seth Lugo | KCR | 2.20 | 0.21 | +1.99 | 5 | #399 |
| Will Warren | NYY | 3.33 | 1.37 | +1.97 | 6 | #259 |
Cooling off. The bottom tenth, at -1.81 or worse.
| Player | Team | Week pts/IP | Month pts/IP | Change | Week IP | Our rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bennett | BOS | -1.31 | 1.89 | -3.21 | 5 | #605 |
| Jacob Lopez | ATH | -0.37 | 2.69 | -3.06 | 9 | #612 |
| Nolan McLean | NYM | -0.60 | 2.33 | -2.93 | 5 | #82 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | 0.17 | 2.86 | -2.70 | 6 | #21 |
| Max Scherzer | TOR | -0.80 | 1.88 | -2.68 | 5 | #747 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | LAA | 0.03 | 2.15 | -2.12 | 9 | #581 |
| Eury Perez | MIA | 0.00 | 2.12 | -2.12 | 9 | #186 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | 0.26 | 2.26 | -2.00 | 6 | #302 |
Everything here is a rate. Points per plate appearance and points per inning remove the schedule from the comparison, which matters more than it sounds: the single most common reason a player "broke out" last week is that he started six games instead of three.
The two windows overlap, the week sits inside the month, so every player is partly being compared against himself. That pulls each number toward zero, which means real form changes are understated here and none of them are manufactured by the method.
The cutoffs are the tenth and ninetieth percentiles of the group being shown, recomputed every time this runs. A pitcher and a hitter are never held to the same bar, because their spreads are not the same shape.
A player needs 5 plate appearances or innings in the week and 20 in the month to appear. A rate built on two at-bats is not form, it is arithmetic.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
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Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
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| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
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Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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