Jacob deGrom is a Texas Rangers SP projected for 373 fantasy points on 173.5 IP, 210 K, 4.2 ERA, 1.135 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 6% and a bust at 15%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Jacob deGrom's 2026 projection is built on 173 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 11 seasons with meaningful innings, deGrom's biggest strikeout year came in 2018 at age 30: 269 strikeouts over 217 innings, with 10 wins. Innings across 2023, 2025 and 2026 ran 30, 173 and 163, a rising workload.
In 2026, deGrom's 4.20 ERA ran above a 3.47 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: deGrom struck out 30.1% of batters and walked 6.9%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 23.2 points, and hitters missed on 33.2% of their swings. Contact against deGrom averaged 90.4 mph off the bat, with a 7.9% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags deGrom's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 355 pitches, the whiff rate sits 2 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 2 points below deGrom's own baseline. The engine applies a -4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
deGrom's projected range runs from a 352-point floor to a 596-point upside, around a 373-point median: a spread of 244 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to deGrom on the board are Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob Lopez and Jared Jones.
At 38, deGrom is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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