Dynasty Disagreements, September 25

10 players we rank far above the dynasty consensus, 10 far below.

Our dynasty board against the dynasty consensus, across the 285 players both rank. Read this one carefully, because the two are not trying to produce the same number: our dynasty rank is a three-year production forecast, while a consensus dynasty rank is a market price that also carries contract situation, prospect romance and name value. A gap is often the two answering different questions rather than either being wrong.

We are higher

Our three-year forecast likes these more than the market does.

We are lower

The market is paying more than our forecast supports. Worth knowing that our dynasty board runs colder than the consensus overall, the median player here is ranked 27 places higher by the market, so this side of the list is longer by construction, not by conviction.

How to read this

Our dynasty rank forecasts three years of production. It does not price a contract, a service-time clock, or how much fun a prospect is to own, all of which move a market rank and none of which are production.

The cutoffs are percentiles of the gap spread rather than a fixed number of places. The whole spread is shifted, because our board runs colder than the consensus; a symmetric cutoff would have produced a long list one way and almost nothing the other, which would describe the shift rather than the disagreements.

A gap is not evidence. Our own research is explicit that disagreeing with the market does not by itself make a model right, and this piece reports the direction and size of the disagreement without claiming the market is wrong.

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