4 ranked players had an injury reported in the last day.
Team medical staffs and beat reporters moved 4 ranked players in the last day. This is the ranked-only list, an injury to someone the board does not carry is not a fantasy decision, so those are left out, ordered by the value actually at risk rather than by when it was reported.
| Player | Pos | IL | Area | Value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | SP | IL15 | Shoulder | 207 | Hold |
| Troy Melton | SP+RP | DTD | Arm | 108 | Bench |
| Shane McClanahan | SP | IL15 | Forearm | 80 | Droppable |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | IL10 | Wrist | 70 | Droppable |
Jesús Luzardo: Luzardo (shoulder) played catch on flat ground Sunday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Troy Melton: Melton exited Sunday's 8-1 loss to the White Sox in the fourth inning with right arm discomfort, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
Shane McClanahan: McClanahan (forearm) will not return before the conclusion of the regular season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Jackson Holliday: Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that it's unlikely Holliday (wrist) will return this season, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
Hold, rosterable value, short-term IL: Jesús Luzardo
Bench, day-to-day and replaceable: Troy Melton
Droppable, below the ~300th-ranked player, i.e. a free agent in most leagues: Shane McClanahan, Jackson Holliday
The verdicts are the engine's, not a hot take, and the cutoffs come from the board rather than from taste: value 295 is the top 5% of ranked players, and value 134 is roughly the 300th-ranked player, the last man rostered in a 12-team league. Above 295 nobody drops anyone; below 134 the player is a free agent in most formats whether he is hurt or not.
Status is the IL designation itself, which is the only honest signal of length available: the feed carries no return dates and no estimated timelines at all, both fields are empty on every record, so anyone quoting a return date is guessing. A 60-day placement is the club saying months; a 10-day is a fortnight.
Value is the replacement-adjusted number the boards sort on, so it answers the only question that matters here: how much is actually at stake. A high-value name on a short absence is usually a hold; a mid-value name on a long one is where roster spots get decided.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
Walk-forward over historical seasons. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, top-N hit rates.
Distribution, uncertainty, per-archetype performance, calibrated tiers, draft sim.
Load any rival projection or ADP source. Auto-detects player_name + rank / adp / projected.
Where the model finds value the market is missing.
Curated picks from current rankings.
Where the model has measurable advantage.
The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
Live pipeline status and data freshness.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
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Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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Every signal, formula, and data source the model uses for player evaluation - organized by product.
Configure your draft session. This stays on this device only.