Jesús Luzardo is a Philadelphia Phillies SP projected for 496 fantasy points on 190.6 IP, 233 K, 2.9 ERA, 1.079 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 52% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Jesús Luzardo's 2026 projection is built on 191 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 7 seasons with meaningful innings, Luzardo's biggest strikeout year came in 2026 at age 28: 221 strikeouts over 180 innings, with 14 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 67, 184 and 180, a rising workload.
In 2026, Luzardo's 2.86 ERA sat close to a 2.83 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Luzardo struck out 30.3% of batters and walked 7.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 23.2 points, and hitters missed on 31.9% of their swings. Contact against Luzardo averaged 87.3 mph off the bat, with a 5.9% barrel rate.
Luzardo's projected range runs from a 471-point floor to a 794-point upside, around a 496-point median: a spread of 323 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Luzardo on the board are Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sánchez and Gavin Williams.
At 28, Luzardo is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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