0 players we rank far above the consensus, 45 we rank far below.
Everyone publishes the consensus. The only thing worth saying against it is where our own board departs from it, and by how much. These are the 45 players the engine and the expert consensus disagree about most sharply today, with injured players removed from both sides.
The consensus treats these as startable, inside the top 150, and the engine does not have them in its top 400. None of them are hurt; that filter is applied before this list is built, because "the engine discounts a pitcher who is not pitching" is not a disagreement worth publishing.
| Player | Pos | Consensus | Our rank | Spread | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony | OF/DH | 41 | 472 | 3 | 91 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | OF | 48 | 637 | 2 | 106 |
| Jake Bennett | SP | 59 | 606 | 18 | 114 |
| Kodai Senga | SP+RP | 64 | 694 | 10 | 76 |
| Lars Nootbaar | OF | 69 | 493 | 4 | 152 |
| Max Clark | OF | 72 | 400 | 2 | 116 |
| Dylan Crews | OF | 75 | 412 | 7 | 180 |
| Josh Lowe | OF | 83 | 641 | 14 | 109 |
| Luis Castillo | SP+RP | 91 | 533 | 20 | 145 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | OF | 91 | 591 | 30 | 92 |
| Dylan Beavers | OF | 100 | 418 | 8 | 140 |
| Carlos Cortes | OF | 101 | 441 | 28 | 176 |
_Showing 12 of 45._
Consensus rank and its spread come from FantasyPros. Spread is the standard deviation across the experts who ranked him: a small number means they agree with each other, which makes a gap against our board more interesting, not less. Players ranked by only one source carry no real consensus and are excluded entirely.
Injured players are removed from both directions. Without that filter, more than a third of the "we are lower" list is simply players on the IL, and the top of it is injured aces the consensus still ranks highly as keepers, a comparison that says nothing about either opinion. 16 players were dropped for that reason today.
This is a disagreement report, not a waiver-availability report. We cannot see your league, and no roster-percentage feed backs this site, so consensus rank is used as the proxy for whether a player is gettable.
Curated picks where the model has the highest decision conviction. Updated every render.
Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
Mark a player as drafted to get a recommendation.
Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
Projects every historical batter-season from prior data only. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, hit rates. Populates the pair pool other validators use.
Walk-forward over historical seasons. Reports RMSE, MAE, Spearman ρ, top-N hit rates.
Distribution, uncertainty, per-archetype performance, calibrated tiers, draft sim.
Load any rival projection or ADP source. Auto-detects player_name + rank / adp / projected.
Where the model finds value the market is missing.
Curated picks from current rankings.
Where the model has measurable advantage.
The safety layer. Realism, false-confidence, forensics - what to remove.
The most important governance tools. Output renders in Validation.
Per-era ablation, error clusters, bias, correlations, removals. Each tells you what to remove. Run walk-forward first.
The smallest model that retains predictive power. Every feature beats the burden of proof.
Live pipeline status and data freshness.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year - historical winners with their stats, plus model-predicted current-season winners.
Predictions from the current 2026 projection model. Top candidates per award based on projected fantasy points + advanced-stat underlying. League assignment from current team.
Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
| Player | Team | Pos | Status | Explanation | Replacement |
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Enter players for each side, one per line. Values use your scoring weights and injury-adjusted projections.
| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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| Player | Pos | ProjPts | Status |
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Every signal, formula, and data source the model uses for player evaluation - organized by product.
Configure your draft session. This stays on this device only.