Kodai Senga is a New York Mets SP+RP projected for 86 fantasy points on 63.1 IP, 77 K, 7.3 ERA, 1.638 WHIP, 9 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 54% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Kodai Senga's 2026 projection is built on 63 innings as a closer. That role carries 9 projected saves.
Across 3 seasons with meaningful innings, Senga's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 30: 202 strikeouts over 166 innings, with 12 wins. Innings across 2023, 2025 and 2026 ran 166, 113 and 61, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
In 2026, Senga's 7.34 ERA ran above a 5.37 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Senga struck out 26.5% of batters and walked 14.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12.0 points, and hitters missed on 29.1% of their swings. Contact against Senga averaged 89.9 mph off the bat, with a 13.5% barrel rate.
Senga's projected range runs from an 80-point floor to a 138-point upside, around an 86-point median: a spread of 58 points, or 67% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Senga on the board are Luis Medina, Lake Bachar and Lance McCullers Jr..
At 33, Senga is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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