Ethan Pecko is a Houston Astros SP projected for 64 fantasy points on 36.2 IP, 25 K, 4 ERA, 1.152 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Ethan Pecko's 2026 projection is built on 36 innings as a starter.
Pecko's one season with meaningful innings came in 2026 at age 23: 34 innings with 23 strikeouts. A single season is a thin base for a projection.
Tracking data from 2026: Pecko struck out 16.4% of batters and walked 10.0%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 6.4 points, and hitters missed on 21.2% of their swings. Contact against Pecko averaged 89.2 mph off the bat, with a 10.0% barrel rate.
Pecko's projected range runs from a 61-point floor to a 103-point upside, around a 64-point median: a spread of 42 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Pecko on the board are Chase Petty, Mike Paredes and Alec Gamboa.
At 23, Pecko is early in the typical pitcher development arc, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
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