Ethan Salas is a San Diego Padres C projected for 26 fantasy points on 7 R, 6 RBI, 0 SB by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 32%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Ethan Salas's 2026 projection is built on 41 plate appearances in a limited role. Salas bats left-handed.
Ethan Salas has no season of regular major-league playing time on record, so the forecast leans on the model's priors rather than a big-league track record, and the projected range below is correspondingly wide.
Salas's projected range runs from a 21-point floor to a 191-point upside, around a 26-point median: a spread of 170 points, or 654% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Salas on the board are Deyvison De Los Santos, Jeferson Quero and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer.
At 20, Salas is young enough that development, not just the current level, shapes the outlook.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
Confidence layers: four orthogonal multipliers: Roster (depth chart), Role (PT certainty), Sample (career PA), Market (consensus alignment). The Audit tab shows all four for every player.
VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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Live pipeline status and data freshness.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
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Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
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