Zac Thornton is a New York Mets SP projected for 109 fantasy points on 60 IP, 45 K, 3.4 ERA, 1.152 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Zac Thornton's 2026 projection is built on 60 innings as a starter.
Thornton's one season with meaningful innings came in 2026 at age 24: 84 innings with 63 strikeouts. A single season is a thin base for a projection.
In 2026, Thornton's 3.42 ERA came in below a 4.51 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Thornton struck out 18.7% of batters and walked 5.3%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 13.4 points, and hitters missed on 17.8% of their swings. Contact against Thornton averaged 89.0 mph off the bat, with a 9.5% barrel rate.
Thornton's projected range runs from a 154-point floor to a 318-point upside, around a 161-point median: a spread of 164 points, or 102% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Thornton on the board are JR Ritchie, Ryan Rolison and Connor Phillips.
At 24, Thornton is early in the typical pitcher development arc, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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