Lazaro Montes is a Seattle Mariners OF projected for 28 fantasy points on 7 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 28%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Lazaro Montes's 2026 projection is built on 63 plate appearances in a limited role. Montes bats left-handed.
Montes's one season of regular playing time came in 2026 at age 21: 59 plate appearances, 25 total bases and 11 RBI. A single season is a thin base for a projection.
Montes's projected range runs from a 26-point floor to a 193-point upside, around a 28-point median: a spread of 167 points, or 596% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Montes on the board are Zac Veen, Brett Callahan and Tyler Callihan.
At 21, Montes is young enough that development, not just the current level, shapes the outlook.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
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VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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Live pipeline status and data freshness.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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Coaching rosters for every MLB team plus a multi-year Fantasy Points Above Average ranking of every MLB coach.
Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
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