Zach Dezenzo is a Houston Astros OF projected for 15 fantasy points on 12 R, 3 RBI, 1 SB by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 21%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Zach Dezenzo's 2026 projection is built on 83 plate appearances in a limited role. Dezenzo bats right-handed.
Across 3 seasons of regular playing time, Dezenzo's most productive came in 2025 at age 25: 36 total bases, 10 RBI and 17 runs over 109 plate appearances. Plate appearances across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 65, 109 and 83.
The 2026 projection for Dezenzo is minimal, around a 15-point median, so this season carries little fantasy value to weigh.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Dezenzo on the board are Kyren Paris, Otto Kemp and Braxton Fulford.
At 26, Dezenzo is in the age range where hitters typically hold their skills.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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Run rankings to populate Market Edge.
Run rankings first.
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Studies and awards - the research-side surfaces of the managr platform.
Live snapshot of the projection system.
Backtest, parsimony, ablation, and benchmark - one synthesized report. Output renders in Validation.
Final Value = Raw Projection × MasterConfidence × TeamContext. Each layer answers one question - no overlap.
Recency weighting: prior seasons contribute by recency (more recent = more weight) and sample size (more PA = more weight).
Shrinkage: observed rates regress toward position-specific population means by an amount inversely proportional to sample size. Catches small-sample outliers.
Quality-of-contact adjustments: xwOBA, barrel rate, and bat-tracking metrics replace luck-driven outcome stats with skill-driven ones.
PT modeling: projected PA is anchored to workload tier (full-time, regular, platoon, backup catcher) using historical role distributions.
Monte Carlo: N simulated seasons per player using projected mean + uncertainty, producing P10 / P50 / P90 distribution and bust%.
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VAR: Value Above Replacement at the player's primary position. Replacement levels are floored per position so SS scarcity doesn't artificially inflate stable middle infielders.
Tune component weights against historical seasons. Stored in session.
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Walk-forward backtests, calibration quality, and benchmark comparisons. Run walk-forward first - most tools depend on its pair pool.
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Last known status of each underlying data source.
Source status will appear once data has been refreshed.
Issues from the most recent data refresh, if any.
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Findings article + all-time top-100 performer leaderboard from every World Baseball Classic (2006-2026).
A growing collection of fantasy baseball studies. Each card opens a detail page with the methodology, the data sources, and (where the data exists today) live computed findings.
Active player injuries, refreshed from upstream sources.
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