AJ Smith-Shawver is a Atlanta Braves SP projected for 24 fantasy points on 33.3 IP, 29 K, 6.5 ERA, 1.535 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 17%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
AJ Smith-Shawver's 2026 projection is built on 33 innings as a starter.
Across 3 seasons with meaningful innings, Smith-Shawver's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 22: 42 strikeouts over 44 innings, with 3 wins. Innings across 2023, 2025 and 2026 ran 25, 44 and 31.
Tracking data from 2026: Smith-Shawver struck out 18.8% of batters and walked 11.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 7.7 points, and hitters missed on 23.3% of their swings. Contact against Smith-Shawver averaged 88.4 mph off the bat, with a 9.1% barrel rate.
Smith-Shawver's projected range runs from a 21-point floor to a 38-point upside, around a 24-point median: a spread of 17 points, or 71% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Smith-Shawver on the board are Geoff Hartlieb, Sam Bachman and Justin Slaten.
At 23, Smith-Shawver is early in the typical pitcher development arc, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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