Paul Skenes is a Pittsburgh Pirates SP projected for 399 fantasy points on 184.3 IP, 212 K, 3.8 ERA, 1.131 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 46% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Paul Skenes's 2026 projection is built on 184 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 3 seasons with meaningful innings, Skenes's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 23: 216 strikeouts over 188 innings, with 10 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 133, 188 and 174.
In 2026, Skenes's 3.82 ERA ran above a 3.30 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Skenes struck out 28.1% of batters and walked 6.9%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 21.2 points, and hitters missed on 28.2% of their swings. Contact against Skenes averaged 88.0 mph off the bat, with a 7.3% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Skenes's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 354 pitches, the whiff rate sits 1 point above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 2 points above Skenes's own baseline. The engine applies a +4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Skenes's projected range runs from a 378-point floor to a 638-point upside, around a 399-point median: a spread of 260 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Skenes on the board are Bryan Woo, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez.
At 24, Skenes is early in the typical pitcher development arc, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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