Trey Gibson is a Baltimore Orioles SP projected for 35 fantasy points on 41.4 IP, 39 K, 6.1 ERA, 1.703 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 20%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Trey Gibson's 2026 projection is built on 41 innings as a starter.
Gibson's one season with meaningful innings came in 2026 at age 24: 40 innings with 37 strikeouts. A single season is a thin base for a projection.
In 2026, Gibson's 6.13 ERA sat close to a 6.15 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Gibson struck out 20.0% of batters and walked 14.6%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 5.4 points, and hitters missed on 21.5% of their swings. Contact against Gibson averaged 90.8 mph off the bat, with an 8.5% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Gibson's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 333 pitches, the whiff rate sits 8 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points above Gibson's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Gibson's projected range runs from a 32-point floor to a 55-point upside, around a 35-point median: a spread of 23 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Gibson on the board are Mason Adams, Jose Cabrera and Mitch Bratt.
At 24, Gibson is early in the typical pitcher development arc, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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