Tanner Gordon is a Colorado Rockies SP+RP projected for 64 fantasy points on 107.2 IP, 89 K, 6.6 ERA, 1.657 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 12%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Tanner Gordon's 2026 projection is built on 107 innings as a starter.
Across 3 seasons with meaningful innings, Gordon's biggest strikeout year came in 2026 at age 28: 85 strikeouts over 104 innings, with 1 win. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 34, 75 and 104, a rising workload.
In 2026, Gordon's 6.68 ERA ran above a 5.16 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Gordon struck out 18.0% of batters and walked 5.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12.9 points, and hitters missed on 21.7% of their swings. Contact against Gordon averaged 90.9 mph off the bat, with an 11.0% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Gordon's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 349 pitches, the whiff rate sits 5 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 5 points below Gordon's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Gordon's projected range runs from a 60-point floor to a 102-point upside, around a 64-point median: a spread of 42 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Gordon on the board are Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Roki Sasaki.
At 28, Gordon is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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