Randy Vásquez is a San Diego Padres SP+RP projected for 226 fantasy points on 146.5 IP, 92 K, 3.9 ERA, 1.269 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Randy Vásquez's 2026 projection is built on 146 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 4 seasons with meaningful innings, Vásquez's biggest strikeout year came in 2026 at age 27: 87 strikeouts over 141 innings, with 10 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 98, 134 and 141.
In 2026, Vásquez's 3.90 ERA came in below a 5.54 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Vásquez struck out 14.8% of batters and walked 6.3%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 8.5 points, and hitters missed on 19.1% of their swings. Contact against Vásquez averaged 91.3 mph off the bat, with a 9.6% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Vásquez's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 171 pitches, the whiff rate sits 1 point above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points below Vásquez's own baseline. The engine applies a -4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Vásquez's projected range runs from a 217-point floor to a 448-point upside, around a 226-point median: a spread of 231 points, or 102% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Vásquez on the board are Michael McGreevy, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen.
At 27, Vásquez is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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