Randy Dobnak is a Kansas City Royals SP projected for 112 fantasy points on 78.1 IP, 52 K, 3.5 ERA, 1.398 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 12%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Randy Dobnak's 2026 projection is built on 78 innings as a starter.
Across 4 seasons with meaningful innings, Dobnak's biggest strikeout year came in 2026 at age 31: 49 strikeouts over 74 innings, with 3 wins. Innings across 2020, 2021 and 2026 ran 47, 51 and 74, a rising workload.
In 2026, Dobnak's 3.51 ERA came in below a 4.86 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Dobnak struck out 15.3% of batters and walked 8.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 7.2 points, and hitters missed on 19.1% of their swings. Contact against Dobnak averaged 90.2 mph off the bat, with a 4.6% barrel rate.
Dobnak's projected range runs from a 106-point floor to a 167-point upside, around a 112-point median: a spread of 61 points, or 54% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Dobnak on the board are Javier Assad, Carmen Mlodzinski and Zac Gallen.
At 31, Dobnak is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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