JP Sears is a San Diego Padres SP projected for 46 fantasy points on 34.6 IP, 27 K, 4.7 ERA, 1.347 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
JP Sears's 2026 projection is built on 35 innings as a starter.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Sears's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 27: 161 strikeouts over 172 innings, with 5 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 181, 136 and 33, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
Tracking data from 2026: Sears struck out 17.5% of batters and walked 7.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 9.8 points, and hitters missed on 20.7% of their swings. Contact against Sears averaged 90.6 mph off the bat, with an 8.7% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Sears's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 182 pitches, the whiff rate sits 5 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 4 points below Sears's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Sears's projected range runs from a 43-point floor to a 73-point upside, around a 46-point median: a spread of 30 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Sears on the board are Cionel Pérez, Jason Foley and Ryan Walker.
At 30, Sears is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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