Riley O'Brien is a St. Louis Cardinals RP projected for 309 fantasy points on 67.5 IP, 67 K, 4.1 ERA, 1.287 WHIP, 40 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 14% and a bust at 18%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Riley O'Brien's 2026 projection is built on 68 innings as a closer. That role carries 40 projected saves.
Across 2 seasons with meaningful innings, O'Brien's biggest strikeout year came in 2026 at age 31: 64 strikeouts over 64 innings, with 38 saves. Innings across 2025 and 2026 ran 48 and 64, a rising workload.
In 2026, O'Brien's 4.08 ERA came in below a 4.99 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: O'Brien struck out 23.2% of batters and walked 10.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 12.7 points, and hitters missed on 26.8% of their swings. Contact against O'Brien averaged 88.9 mph off the bat, with a 7.6% barrel rate.
O'Brien's projected range runs from a 294-point floor to a 494-point upside, around a 309-point median: a spread of 200 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to O'Brien on the board are Connelly Early, Braydon Fisher and Kody Funderburk.
At 31, O'Brien is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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