David Bednar is a New York Yankees RP projected for 375 fantasy points on 72.9 IP, 81 K, 2.5 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 37 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 60% and a bust at 18%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
David Bednar's 2026 projection is built on 73 innings as a closer. That role carries 37 projected saves.
Across 6 seasons with meaningful innings, Bednar's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 30: 86 strikeouts over 63 innings, with 27 saves. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 58, 63 and 69.
In 2026, Bednar's 2.47 ERA came in below a 2.88 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Bednar struck out 27.1% of batters and walked 7.1%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 20.0 points, and hitters missed on 30.8% of their swings. Contact against Bednar averaged 87.3 mph off the bat, with a 4.9% barrel rate.
Bednar's projected range runs from a 357-point floor to a 600-point upside, around a 375-point median: a spread of 243 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Bednar on the board are Chase Burns, Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader.
At 31, Bednar is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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