George Kirby is a Seattle Mariners SP projected for 271 fantasy points on 183.4 IP, 156 K, 4.3 ERA, 1.390 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 2% and a bust at 9%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
George Kirby's 2026 projection is built on 183 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Kirby's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 26: 179 strikeouts over 191 innings, with 14 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 191, 126 and 175.
In 2026, Kirby's 4.33 ERA sat close to a 4.21 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Kirby struck out 20.0% of batters and walked 6.3%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 13.7 points, and hitters missed on 22.5% of their swings. Contact against Kirby averaged 89.4 mph off the bat, with a 6.6% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Kirby's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 391 pitches, the whiff rate sits 2 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 2 points below Kirby's own baseline. The engine applies a -4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Kirby's projected range runs from a 256-point floor to a 434-point upside, around a 271-point median: a spread of 178 points, or 66% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Kirby on the board are Nolan McLean, Shota Imanaga and Foster Griffin.
At 28, Kirby is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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