Carmen Mlodzinski is a Pittsburgh Pirates SP+RP projected for 171 fantasy points on 104 IP, 83 K, 4 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 2 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 13%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Carmen Mlodzinski's 2026 projection is built on 104 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 4 seasons with meaningful innings, Mlodzinski's biggest strikeout year came in 2026 at age 27: 97 strikeouts over 123 innings, with 8 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 51, 99 and 123, a rising workload.
In 2026, Mlodzinski's 3.95 ERA came in below a 4.89 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Mlodzinski struck out 18.1% of batters and walked 8.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 9.9 points, and hitters missed on 20.9% of their swings. Contact against Mlodzinski averaged 90.7 mph off the bat, with a 6.9% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Mlodzinski's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 161 pitches, the whiff rate sits 3 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 5 points below Mlodzinski's own baseline. The engine applies a -4% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Mlodzinski's projected range runs from a 201-point floor to a 420-point upside, around a 212-point median: a spread of 219 points, or 103% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Mlodzinski on the board are Tyler Phillips, Ryan Gusto and Aaron Civale.
At 27, Mlodzinski is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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