Shane Baz is a Baltimore Orioles SP projected for 284 fantasy points on 189.7 IP, 163 K, 4.1 ERA, 1.352 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 1% and a bust at 12%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Shane Baz's 2026 projection is built on 190 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 4 seasons with meaningful innings, Baz's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 26: 176 strikeouts over 166 innings, with 10 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 79, 166 and 180, a rising workload.
In 2026, Baz's 4.11 ERA sat close to a 4.27 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Baz struck out 20.0% of batters and walked 8.2%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.8 points, and hitters missed on 21.5% of their swings. Contact against Baz averaged 90.0 mph off the bat, with a 6.8% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Baz's arsenal as trending down. Over the last 356 pitches, the whiff rate sits 12 points below and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 3 points below Baz's own baseline. The engine applies a -6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Baz's projected range runs from a 269-point floor to a 454-point upside, around a 284-point median: a spread of 185 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Baz on the board are Robbie Ray, José Soriano and Tanner Bibee.
At 27, Baz is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation adds weight for expected growth.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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