Tyler Wells is a Tampa Bay Rays SP+RP projected for 221 fantasy points on 72.1 IP, 72 K, 2.4 ERA, 0.903 WHIP, 6 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 14%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Tyler Wells's 2026 projection is built on 72 innings as a closer. That role carries 6 projected saves.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Wells's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 28: 117 strikeouts over 119 innings, with 7 wins. Innings across 2023, 2025 and 2026 ran 119, 22 and 72.
In 2026, Wells's 2.38 ERA came in below a 2.94 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Wells struck out 26.0% of batters and walked 6.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 19.5 points, and hitters missed on 30.6% of their swings. Contact against Wells averaged 88.1 mph off the bat, with a 7.0% barrel rate.
Wells's projected range runs from a 221-point floor to a 438-point upside, around a 221-point median: a spread of 217 points, or 98% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Wells on the board are Clarke Schmidt, Steven Okert and Garrett Crochet.
At 31, Wells is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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