Logan Gilbert is a Seattle Mariners SP projected for 431 fantasy points on 196.1 IP, 216 K, 3.7 ERA, 1.088 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 48% and a bust at 11%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Logan Gilbert's 2026 projection is built on 196 innings as a full-time starter.
Across 6 seasons with meaningful innings, Gilbert's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 27: 220 strikeouts over 209 innings, with 9 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 209, 131 and 186.
In 2026, Gilbert's 3.73 ERA sat close to a 3.63 expected ERA, so the runs allowed matched the quality of contact.
Tracking data from 2026: Gilbert struck out 27.3% of batters and walked 6.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 20.8 points, and hitters missed on 30.7% of their swings. Contact against Gilbert averaged 89.6 mph off the bat, with a 10.0% barrel rate.
Recent pitch tracking flags Gilbert's arsenal as trending up. Over the last 342 pitches, the whiff rate sits 11 points above and the called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits 4 points above Gilbert's own baseline. The engine applies a +6% adjustment to the rest-of-season projection for a move this size; the full-season projection is untouched.
Gilbert's projected range runs from a 409-point floor to a 690-point upside, around a 431-point median: a spread of 281 points, or 65% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Gilbert on the board are Reid Detmers, Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler.
At 29, Gilbert is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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