Nick Lodolo is a Cincinnati Reds SP projected for 131 fantasy points on 114.8 IP, 88 K, 4.9 ERA, 1.472 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 12%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-09-28. Rebuilt daily.
Nick Lodolo's 2026 projection is built on 115 innings as a starter.
Across 5 seasons with meaningful innings, Lodolo's biggest strikeout year came in 2025 at age 27: 156 strikeouts over 157 innings, with 9 wins. Innings across 2024, 2025 and 2026 ran 115, 157 and 109.
In 2026, Lodolo's 4.97 ERA came in below a 6.47 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so fewer runs crossed than that contact would usually produce.
Tracking data from 2026: Lodolo struck out 17.1% of batters and walked 9.5%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 7.6 points, and hitters missed on 21.5% of their swings. Contact against Lodolo averaged 89.9 mph off the bat, with a 9.0% barrel rate.
Lodolo's projected range runs from a 122-point floor to a 260-point upside, around a 131-point median: a spread of 138 points, or 105% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Lodolo on the board are Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Colin Rea.
At 28, Lodolo is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-09-28 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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