Justin Lawrence is a RP projected for 24 fantasy points on 35.5 IP, 44 K, 7.3 ERA, 1.937 WHIP, 1 SV by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 16%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Justin Lawrence's 2026 projection is built on 35 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 4 seasons with meaningful innings, Lawrence's biggest strikeout year came in 2023 at age 28: 78 strikeouts over 75 innings, with 11 saves. Innings across 2023, 2024 and 2026 ran 75, 60 and 34, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
Tracking data from 2026: Lawrence struck out 24.3% of batters and walked 15.8%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 8.5 points, and hitters missed on 26.3% of their swings. Contact against Lawrence averaged 90.0 mph off the bat, with a 10.0% barrel rate.
Lawrence's projected range runs from a 22-point floor to a 39-point upside, around a 24-point median: a spread of 17 points, or 71% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Lawrence on the board are Spencer Strider, Jake Woodford and Beau Brieske.
At 31, Lawrence is at the age where velocity and durability become the leading risks for pitchers, and the multi-year valuation discounts later seasons accordingly.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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