Matt Waldron is a Washington Nationals RP projected for 31 fantasy points on 42.7 IP, 33 K, 6.5 ERA, 1.593 WHIP by the managr projection engine. Monte-Carlo outcome odds put an elite season at 0% and a bust at 16%.
Projection snapshot: 2026-10-18. Rebuilt daily.
Matt Waldron's 2026 projection is built on 43 innings out of the bullpen.
Across 3 seasons with meaningful innings, Waldron's biggest strikeout year came in 2024 at age 27: 133 strikeouts over 147 innings, with 7 wins. Innings across 2023, 2024 and 2026 ran 41, 147 and 43, a drop in workload worth weighing against the forecast.
In 2026, Waldron's 6.54 ERA ran above a 3.55 expected ERA. Expected ERA is built from the quality of contact allowed rather than the runs that scored, so the gap points to run prevention that was better than the ERA shows.
Tracking data from 2026: Waldron struck out 17.0% of batters and walked 5.7%, a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 11.3 points, and hitters missed on 17.8% of their swings. Contact against Waldron averaged 88.2 mph off the bat, with a 5.4% barrel rate.
Waldron's projected range runs from a 31-point floor to a 50-point upside, around a 31-point median: a spread of 19 points, or 61% of the median.
By statistical profile, the closest comparisons to Waldron on the board are Brooks Raley, Tim Herrin and Kenley Jansen.
At 29, Waldron is in the age range where pitchers typically hold their skills, and the multi-year valuation applies little age adjustment.
This report is generated from the managr engine's 2026-10-18 snapshot and rebuilt daily.
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